Market Trends and Volatility on Real Estate Values

Assessing market cycles and risk is a necessary component of any investment strategy. Whether in a positive or negative cycle, there are opportunities in real estate beyond the “buy low; sell high” saying, depending upon long-term goals. However, it is much easier to assess previous trends. It is difficult to predict the future; otherwise, everyone would have predicted the market crash of 2008. To measure performance, we should look at how real estate compares to historical and emerging data, as well as other securities to mitigate risk.

Historical Data

Historical data includes sales information, vacancy rates, and interest rates. Sales data is widely used by the appraisal methods as it gives an indication of where property values have been. The downside is that sales comparables are often lagging and may not keep up with immediate corrections in the marketplace. Vacancy rates can tell us whether there is an surplus of spaces.

A great example is provided by Harvard Market Cycle Quadrants using vacancy and construction to show phases of the market cycle. If an increase in vacancy in a specific market is starting to occur, we may consider this phase to be an indication of an impending downward trend. Often new construction falls behind market phases. Once the market is in an expansion phase, companies look to new construction to capitalize on investment momentum. However, construction often takes time including design, permits and production. By the time the new product hits the market, there could already be a change in the cycle or even cause a change by increasing available units.

 

Another trend to look at is interest rates. When the Federal Open Market Committee raises rates, it affects the housing economy as well as investment properties. Generally as interest rates rise, a negative impact on residential properties will occur. Monthly payments increase and thereby affect affordability. As expected appreciation decreases, the desire to own may also decrease. And of course, interest rates affect investment yields. As the cost of borrowing increases, expected rates of returns must also increase. Recently, we have seen interest rates already increase with anticipated additional rate hikes throughout the year.

Securities

The risk of investing in real estate also must also be compared with returns on other security investments such as bonds, stocks, and treasury bills. Recently, the rates on treasury bills have increased, making those more appealing to more risk adverse investors. T-bill rates impact real estate income yields as investors then expect higher returns when compared to the benchmark of a riskless investment.

REITs are an alternative source of offsetting risk by investing in portfolio holdings and different asset types. Many of our clients are REITs and have positioned their success on the ability to purchase our value-add retail listings thereby increasing yield.

What is the future real estate outlook?

Using some of these indicators we make more informed predictions about the future of expected returns. While purchasing real estate always entails some risk, it also comes with reward. From at least 1985-2009, real estate investments exceeded the rate of inflation and produced investment returns. Increasing returns is also a hedge against concerns about inflation. While uncertainty in the market can be a factor affecting values, knowing how to analyze the trends can help offset volatility.

Our team is uniquely qualified to walk investors through multiple retail assets from single tenant, multi-tenant, to grocery anchored power centers and properly position dispositions ahead of the market curve.

The Future of Drone Technology in Commercial Real Estate​

The Technical Advances of Drone Usage Across Industries

Technology advances so quickly it often feels faster than it should. As a professional in my thirties, I have lived through the advent of home internet and the progression of dial-up to wifi; pagers progress to the handheld technological magic we commonly refer to as our smartphones; and music being played from a Walkman, to a portable cd player, and now the multiple streaming platforms that give me access to any song at anytime and anywhere. Drone technology is progressing just as quickly, and we are continually seeing applications of drone usage across various industries.

Even in an industry that is often late to adopt cutting edge, and even sometimes commonplace technology, drones have made their mark in commercial real estate. We have discussed laws and regulations around drone usage as well as how our team, among others, have utilized this technology in marketing commercial real estate assets. Which begs us to ask, where is drone technology going? And, more importantly – what does that mean for commercial real estate?

The Future of Drone Application in Daily Life

The future has arrived and the vision of a world where drones are fully integrated into our daily lives has come to fruition. Drones have already become very commonplace and are even being integrated into our daily routine, including law enforcement using them to patrol large crowds. We saw this at this year’s Coachella music festival, where local law enforcement utilized drones to prevent potential safety incidents.

Photographers can be hired for events to take bird’s eye views of the festivities, delivery services have begun amassing fleets to launch same-day and even same-hour deliveries, and a few cities have begun utilizing drones for disaster response. These are just a few ways industries have applied drone technology. Drones have been fully integrated, and now companies are finding ways to further this technology through augmented and virtual realities.

Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality, & Mixed Reality

The first two terms have been buzz words in the marketing community in recent years and we should take a moment to clarify the difference between the two. Virtual reality (VR) aims to create a new environment, fully immersing the user’s reality into a digital world while augmented reality (AR) enhances a user’s experience in the real world with virtual elements through overlays and digital lenses. A tangible example of augmented reality would be social media filters or Pokémon Go.

There is also a third segment called mixed reality (MR) which combines aspects from AR and VR. The relationship between AR and MR is more similar. The concept is still settling into its own stride and MR products have hit the market such as Microsoft’s Hololens. This hybrid reality anchors the user’s virtual world into the user’s real world enabling a virtual object to interact with the real world. Not only would a virtual object like a box, or person be able to interact in our reality; a user could also be fully immersed in a virtual world that blends together with real-world surroundings.

Drone Application for Commercial Real Estate

This is an exciting time in technology which directly correlates with a multitude of industries. Commercial real estate can take advantage of new technology by utilizing drones to help create AR, VR, and MR elements for marketing.

Drones will aide in the ability to create virtual tours of properties and /or build interactive renderings of what a future building or build-out could be before funding construction costs. Furthermore, developers could create virtual worlds and test concepts on consumers before a property is even built.

Marketing campaigns will become immersive experiences, giving an investor the ability to tour and interact with a property from the comfort of their office or home.

The future also holds applications of drone and MR technology outside of marketing. The combination of the two could provide safer, easier and quicker site inspections.  A site inspection could be conducted remotely, providing a safer route for sites that are under construction or structurally damaged. Thermal cameras could also be utilized and surveys could be conducted through automation.

Drone technology could also improve building security and work hand in hand with human surveillance. Companies could monitor properties remotely and improve response times by utilizing drones to investigate potential security risks.

As technology advances, the commercial real estate industry will find new ways to pair drone technology with best practices. Drones have the potential to provide improved client experiences through convenience and impressive visual collateral. The possibilities are endless, exciting and inspiring.

Merging Talent, Experience and Values as a Client-Centric Team​​

Patrick Toomey and Tom Lagos have joined forces at JLL. While running competing teams in the industry, they found that they shared a deep conviction in a client-first approach to the business. Tom and Patrick also realized that they would have the proper balance of business development and execution to have a high-quality and high-volume team.

With Patrick’s institutional principal-side background, he is able to provide a perspective and level of service to clients that is unequaled in the industry. Tom has a dynamic business development strength and deep client relationships with an outstanding track record that, when combined with the execution side that Patrick provides, will bring outstanding brokerage experience to their clients. Together they have transacted more than 500 individual commercial retail real estate deals valued at more than $4 billion, which provides a depth and experience that is unparalleled in their peer group. Their focus will be on multi-tenant retail center disposition assignments. The JLL platform is an excellent place to bring these skills and experiences together.

Joining Patrick and Tom is Jordan Uttal, who will be spearheading the team’s net lease practice. Jordan has years of experience in this space, as well as a unique background in marketing having been one of the founding members of a Silicon Valley startup specializing in interactive online marketing, which is now publicly traded and valued in the billions. Jordan has brought this background to the commercial real estate industry and has developed numerous innovations for marketing commercial properties. His depth of knowledge and insight on net lease investments will be a tremendous asset to the team and its clients alike.

Heather Boren joins the team from Colliers where she led the Shopping Center Advisers team as the lead analyst and underwriter. Heather has valued and marketed hundreds of properties and her depth of knowledge and experience go well beyond that of underwriting. Heather teaches ARGUS (the industry standard underwriting program for commercial real estate) at Pepperdine University and UCLA, and is a professor of real estate at Pepperdine University. She teaches graduate-level ARGUS and leasing strategies.

Maadhevi Comar also has come from the Shopping Center Advisers team to lead the marketing effort of the group. With a broad experience in positioning commercial properties for sale, plus an advanced degree from University of California Berkeley, Maadhevi produces quality work on the team’s best-in-class marketing products.  Maadhevi leads not only property marketing but also all of the team’s outbound marketing materials.

Finally, Alex Salvatierra leads the team’s graphic production effort. With years of experience in graphical production in the commercial real estate field, Alex’s work is known to be the highest quality. He produces all of the team’s visual content. Alex is not only known for his industry-leading work, but also for training top level professionals at Colliers International and Matthews Retail Group – individuals who still benefit from his insights and lessons today.

Together we are excited and honored to be part of the JLL team, and look forward to providing the highest level of execution for our clients!